The U.S. agricultural sector is reeling from the deepening effects of an international trade conflict, one that farmers and exporters say has already escalated into a full-scale economic crisis. While policymakers continue to deliberate trade deals and tariffs, those working the land and shipping American goods abroad are feeling the immediate financial fallout. The sharp drop in Chinese demand for American farm products — once a cornerstone of U.S. export markets — has left producers scrambling to adapt, canceling shipments and laying off workers as orders vanish and revenues collapse.
Farmers and agricultural trade groups are reporting heavy financial losses tied directly to retaliatory tariffs and canceled Chinese contracts. According to Peter Friedmann of the Agriculture Transportation Coalition (AgTC), the situation has gone beyond a looming threat — the crisis is already unfolding in real time. In one instance, the USDA confirmed that China canceled an order of 12,000 tons of U.S. pork, the largest such cancellation in years. Other exporters, from lumber to seed, have described sudden stoppages in supply chains, including held railcars and suspended cargo mid-shipment. With goods piling up in storage and on the water, the uncertainty is growing for producers and supply chain operators alike.
The impact extends beyond individual farms, touching major logistics hubs like the Port of Oakland. Unlike other ports that primarily handle imports, Oakland relies on a nearly even balance of exports and imports, many of which are agricultural. Port officials have warned that ongoing tariff disputes could destabilize regional employment and trade flows. Retaliatory measures from countries like China directly threaten essential exports such as almonds, pork, dairy, and recycled goods. Since China accounts for a significant share of the port’s trade, any disruption to this channel has ripple effects throughout the economy of Northern California and beyond.
Exporters emphasize that replacing the scale of Chinese demand is practically impossible in the short term. One lumber exporter reported a sharp decline in prices — some products losing up to 20% of their market value — and said they had drastically cut purchases from independent suppliers like truckers and sawmills. Similarly, forage producers, who ship hay and straw overseas for livestock feed, are facing severe logistical challenges. Dozens of blanked sailings and a shortage of affordable vessel space have left exporters unable to deliver their goods without incurring losses. Smaller businesses, which often rely on thin profit margins, are struggling to remain viable as they’re forced to reroute shipments to less profitable markets or cancel them altogether.
Additional pressures are mounting from new shipping regulations. The SHIPS Act, recently enacted by the U.S. Trade Representative, will impose steep port fees on Chinese-made vessels calling at U.S. ports — fees that do not exempt containerized agricultural goods, which account for the majority of high-value food exports. While bulk commodities are excluded, items like beef, poultry, processed foods, and dairy, which are containerized, will bear the brunt of these fees. With around 55% of U.S. agricultural exports by value shipped in containers, this policy could further undermine an already embattled sector. Exporters are now calling for urgent policy revisions to preserve what remains of their trade lifelines. As one hay exporter lamented, much of the industry’s future now hinges on decisions made by a few powerful hands in Washington.
